The Red Signal

Writing from the desk

Practitioner notes on the market. Real numbers, named patterns, no slop.

The Red Signal / Issue 107 min read

The Market Data Scarcity Curve

200 applicants, maybe one or two real hires. A full pipeline is not a talent pool. Why standard hiring fails in market infrastructure, and what works instead.

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The Red Signal / Issue 095 min read

The Senior Illusion

'We need someone senior' kills more good hires than any bad candidate ever could. Most of the time it doesn't mean experienced. It doesn't mean exceptional. It means safe. What that costs you.

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The Red Signal / Issue 086 min read

You Weren't Ghosted. You Just Didn't Follow Up

Ghosting has taken over every recruitment conversation. The system is broken in places, that part isn't up for debate. But not every unanswered application is ghosting, and sometimes you didn't follow up.

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The Red Signal / Issue 077 min read

The Engineering Absorption Effect

Engineering headcount gets frozen. A role stays open for five months. Then it quietly disappears, the work absorbed by the people already there. The cost isn't free. It's deferred, and it arrives all at once.

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The Red Signal / Issue 068 min read

Good Engineers Are Walking Away From Your Roles. Here's the Conversation You're Not Hearing

30 off-the-record calls with engineers this quarter. They're acting more like investors than job seekers, and the companies still running 2019 hiring playbooks are losing people and blaming the market.

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The Red Signal / Issue 056 min read

The Terminal Is Still on the Desk. The Job It Justified Is Gone

Fifteen years in financial data. Knew Bloomberg like his own kitchen. Just made redundant. When the interface becomes natural language, knowing the interface is worth near zero. What's durable instead.

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The Red Signal / Issue 046 min read

I'm Happy… But Could I Be Happier? What Love Island Can Teach You About Career Drift

Someone my friend used to manage just beat him to the MD role. His mistake? Loyalty. He stayed comfortable while the market moved without him. This is career drift, and how to avoid it.

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The Red Signal / Issue 037 min read

The Only Recruitment Stat That Actually Matters in 2026

929 applications. I sent 5 CVs. The 5 weren't pulled from the pile, they were people I already knew. Applicants are 3.6x more likely to get hired through a connection. The only stat that matters.

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The Red Signal / Issue 027 min read

AI Didn't Break Recruitment. It Just Exposed That Most of You Have No Strategy

'The bots rejected my CV.' Bollocks. AI isn't rejecting you, other candidates are using AI to bury you. There are fewer jobs and more people. That's it. The real reason you're not getting interviews.

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The Red Signal / Issue 015 min read

Unemployed? You're Already Losing the Interview Before It Starts

It's easier to get a job when you already have one. Employed candidates get 2x the interviews and 3x the offers. The market doesn't play fair. Here's the bias, and how to cut through it.

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